Predicting Covid-19 deaths in UK

The total deaths recorded in the UK to date (28 March 2020) is 1,228, an increase of 209 since yesterday. The Health Minister is predicting that a final total of 20-25,000 deaths will be a good outcome. Taking today as Week 0, I have applied a little maths to the figures released so far, and the accelerating rate of change. This will not of course go on without limit, or the whole population would be eliminated. This might be a good outcome for Extinction Rebellion, but it is not the ideal outcome for the rest of humanity, and I for one would like to see a few more summers. I am therefore presenting this forecast based on the limited and ever-changing information we have at the moment, here and in other countries.

Projection of possible total deaths in UK

As we now know, Covid-19 is highly infectious, and dangerous because people are infective at all stages, both before they show symptoms and for some time afterwards. It is particularly dangerous for elderly men with pre-existing health problems, which makes me take it seriously as I try to avoid any contact with the world outside my home.

This prediction is based on a final death figure of twice the best case figure, i.e. 50,000. The rate of increase is exponential at the beginning: it will rise to a peak, and then begin to level off as the number of immune people rises and the rate of infection tails away. It assumes no vaccine over the next few months, and that the infection will not abruptly stop from the release of a miracle cure, nor die from warmer weather. Although very provisional, these data suggest the magic peak will occur in 3-4 weeks time, when the rate may be as high as 2,000 deaths/day.

The good news for most people is, in two months, it may all be over, except for small pockets of residual outbreaks. The majority of people should be able to return to work or schooling in one month's time, especially if they can be shown to be immune. The bad news is for people like me, who will continue to be at risk until it is completely eliminated, or until a vaccine or good treatment is produced. But at least there should be a huge surplus of ventilators and intensive care beds available by that stage.