Predicting the future

 Politics is a dangerous area for the blogwritter to tread, for any view invariably falls between two contrary opinions, so I will try to avoid giving any opinion. Instead, I will venture two predictions. This too may be a vain venture, but if I am right, I shall have written evidence rather than the trite "I said that would happen", and if wrong they will be buried beneath the rolling seas of history. 

The first concerns Trump and Musk, two figures so far from my own modest circle I would normally barely notice them; but I can't help but be struck how two such massive egos have come together for mutual benefit. The only speculation here is how long the relationship will last. Both men are renown for using the law to attack their enemies: "Trump sues for billions from media he says is biased against him", says one headline, and "Trump has sworn he'll get revenge on a long list of enemies" is another. In the case of Musk, his love of litigation is legendary. He and his companies have filed at least 23 lawsuits in federal courts in the last twelve months. They have sued competitors, startups, law firms, watchdog groups, individuals, the state of California, federal agencies, and pop star Grimes, who is the mother of three of his children. Musk has been so legally aggressive that one judge decided his litigation was more about revenge than justice: “This case is about punishing the defendants for their speech,” the judge said. Two such self-centred, volatile, opinionated people will clash and when they do, there will be consequences. The relationship will explode, wrecking all who are too close; neither will win, for Trump will have all the power, and regards himself as a deity who sets the law; Musk has his billions and a massive popular following and will seek revenge in generating reams of avenging publicity. The only question, really, is how soon will it happen? Probably within a few months is my guess.

My second prediction, somewhat less certain, is about Boris. I have just completed his autobiography, Unleashed, which in fairness is a well-written and insightful account of his time in power as Mayor of London and Prime Minister, although inevitably somewhat biased towards his accomplishments and achievements while somewhat lacking in his failures. Notably lacking is any mention of his future direction; thoroughly enjoyed his time of power, and shows no wish to move on from politics, although the world of journalism remains wide open to him. The conservative party is beginning to increase in popularity, perhaps not surprising considering how low it had plunged, but at the moment it seems to be at the expense of labour. With the inexorable rise of the Reform party, especially if backed by money from Musk, its continuing rise will come from both parties, and the Torys' popularity will stall. Worse, from Johnson's point of view, there is no way they will want him back. I see his only avenue for political re-entry as through Reform, and I suspect in the next year or two, he may seek to join Reform as I way to rebuild his public reputation, perhaps by becoming a candidate for them to see what popularity he still draws. That should be an interesting future. 

On a more personal note, which this blog is supposed to be about, Annie and I meet the oncology team again at Addenbrookes this afternoon when they will discuss my options, and decide if I might be a candidate for further surgery or radiotherapy, or if they will simply wash their hands of me as they did two and a half years ago, when they told me I had less than twelve months to live and just to go away and die quietly (no, not in such blunt terms, obviously!) On this, I will make no prediction, but I will keep people posted. Incidentally, no one else seems to want to read Unleashed, but if readers know anyone who wants a very clean copy, I will pass it on.