Predicting CV-19 Deaths in UK Week 2

One week ago, I showed a graph I produced showing how the infection rate and deaths from Covid-19 might change in the UK from week to week (see Predicting Covid-19 deaths in UK). Yesterday, I updated the published figures, shown below.

At the moment, the black crosses of actual deaths are rising slightly above my red line predictions. The daily rate of deaths was also rising much more rapidly than my predictions (blue line), but the rate of increase is now tailing off. We are all in virtual house arrest, so must hope this represents a genuine slow down from the huge restrictions to liberty we all face.

The graph below shows the same data, but with the projected deaths shown on a logarithmic scale. This shows the increase in deaths more clearly, but also suggests the curve is beginning to level off. Anyone with comments on the projections or wanting copies of these is welcome to contact me (Gandad_John) by the message link.

Meanwhile on a brighter note, following the Queen's Address to the Nation, Ann has written a new poem celebrating the same sentiments.

Tomorrow

We will party again
blow out birthday candles
walk freely in the park
enjoy God's sunshine
smell the cut grass
touch hands
kiss cheeks
feel once more
the comforting embrace
of a well loved family face.

Annie Elliott