Herr Putin |
With the fall of communism and the ending of the first Cold War, MI6 turned its might towards the new threats coming from the Middle East and the rising power of China. Now, the axis of threat has turned again, and they may be forced, like some Le Carré novel, to bring some of their long-retired Russian experts back into the intelligence fold. Before the invasion of Ukraine, many commentators were dismissing the presence of 100,000 troops massing on its borders as "shaking a stick", and were convinced Herr Putin would never really move in to the kill. The threat from him is now all too real for the west to dismiss. The man shows many traits of the unhinged, driven by isolation and paranoia but with the backing of massive fire power to carry out his wild threats. A dictator in the mould of Hitler and Stalin, he appears to have reduced all around him to quivering, fearful yes men, too frightened to offer any balanced opinion. Such instability in one man is fearful. He must now see the whole Western world as against him (which it is), and will convince himself that his original fears were fully justified. As opposition to his wild behaviour grows, he will feel more and more trapped in the world of his imagination, and will become increasingly convinced that his only solution is to take on this new challenge. The suggestion that some brave person will be come forward to lead others within the Kremlin to restrict Herr Putin's capacity to issue military orders is, I suggest, fanciful. There is support for Putin among many of the Russian populace, and history suggests that dictators who control the whole body politic (think Stalin and Hitler) do not get removed by internal revolt. I fear his reaction may be to trigger a pre-emptive strike somewhere in Europe, and we may be led ineluctably into more than a Cold War.
On a more relaxed note, we visited the boys' new home again yesterday to do some more "odd jobs". I repaired the gate after its damage from the storms and hung another hook in their bedroom. Meanwhile, Ann and Andre sewed heavy curtains that the boys had bought that look good but were too long. Later, in a lovely thank you gesture, they took us to Bury's only Michelin star restaurant, the Pea Porridge, for a very enjoyable evening.